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⚡ Quick Reference Card
| Race |
Your Vote |
Viability |
Polymarket |
| Governor B1 |
Steve Hilton (R) |
High ~21% |
Primary General |
| Lt. Governor B1 |
Gloria Romero (R) |
Signal vote |
— |
| Secretary of State B1 |
Don Wagner (R) |
Signal vote |
— |
| Controller B1 |
Herb Morgan (R) |
Signal vote |
— |
| Treasurer B1 |
Jennifer Hawks (R) |
Signal vote |
— |
| Attorney General B1 |
Michael E. Gates (R) |
Advances as #2 |
Link |
| Insurance Commissioner B1 |
Stacy Korsgaden (R) |
Signal vote |
— |
| State Board of Equalization B1 |
Bill Shireman (R) |
Incumbent R |
— |
| U.S. Rep CD10 B1 |
Katherine Piccinini (R) |
D+18 district |
Link |
| State Assembly 20 B1 |
Patricia Muga (R) |
Signal only |
— |
| Superior Court #13 B1 |
Michael P. Johnson |
Nonpartisan |
— |
| Superior Court #19 B1 |
Patricia Miles |
Nonpartisan |
— |
| State Superintendent B1 |
Sonja Shaw |
Competitive |
— |
| County Superintendent B1 |
Alysse Castro |
Uncontested |
— |
| Board of Education 4th B1 |
Mark Harvey |
Nonpartisan |
— |
| DA Alameda (Short Term) B1 |
Ursula Jones Dickson |
Frontrunner |
— |
| Measure B B1 |
NO ✗ |
55% to pass |
— |
| U.S. Rep CD14 B2 · Jun 16 |
Wendy Huang (R) |
Signal vote |
Primary Special |
"Only Republican who can actually reach November — concrete tax cuts, full law enforcement backing, and a real shot at changing Sacramento."
At 21% in the latest Emerson poll, Hilton is the only Republican realistically advancing to November. Proposes eliminating income tax for earners under $100K, flat 7.5% above, and killing the minimum franchise tax. Full law enforcement support. Why not Bianco: polling at ~12%, Oath Keepers ties, and his vote likely hands the #2 spot to Steyer.
"Former Democrat who switched parties over school choice and government overreach — her conviction matches my frustration with the status quo."
Only viable Republican in the race. Former State Senate Majority Leader — first woman to hold the role. Authored the Parent Trigger Law. Switched from Democrat to Republican in 2024 over school choice, COVID mandates, and gender identity policies. Running in tandem with Hilton.
"Only credible Republican running — sending a signal that electoral integrity matters to me."
Orange County Supervisor with real government experience. Electoral integrity focus. Will likely advance to November as #2 in a top-two primary.
"CIO background and AI-driven spending transparency platform — the kind of tech-forward fiscal accountability I'd actually trust."
Chief Investment Officer background. Proposes real-time state spending transparency via AI and blockchain — uniquely aligned with your tech instincts on fiscal oversight.
"Debt reduction and disciplined reporting over spending — the Treasurer should be a watchdog, not a rubber stamp."
Clearer message than co-Republican Serpa: audits, debt reduction, disciplined financial reporting. Two Republicans splitting the vote — consolidate behind Hawks who has more public visibility.
"Bonta spent his tenure suing Trump instead of fighting crime — Gates is the correction."
Former Huntington Beach City Attorney; ex-DOJ Civil Rights Division deputy. Pro-enforcement, pro-Prop 36, pro-police. Explicitly frames his campaign as fixing Bonta's 50+ Trump lawsuits vs. actual crime-fighting. Strong alignment with your priorities. Will likely advance to November as the Republican challenger.
"She's actually worked in insurance — I want domain expertise running this office, not a politician."
Licensed insurance agent with direct industry experience. Most likely to take a market-friendly approach over consumer-mandate-heavy policy. Multiple Republicans splitting the vote — Korsgaden has the most relevant domain expertise.
"Taxpayer advocate on a tax board — exactly who should be sitting in that seat."
Incumbent BOE member. Self-described "fiscal conservative with a conscience." Platform: defend taxpayers from unfair assessments, transparent administration, cut and shift taxes. Lincoln Club of Northern California officer.
"She's earned it — 3rd run, law enforcement values, border security focus, and she's already proven she can pull a third of the district."
D+18 district — DeSaulnier is the heavy favorite. But Piccinini got 33.5% in 2024, is California Republican Assembly endorsed, and is on her 3rd run. Border security, public safety, fiscal responsibility. Your vote helps her advance to November as #2.
"Ortega is entrenched, but I'm not handing her a free pass — Muga gets my vote as a matter of principle."
Ortega won with 72.9% in 2024 — deeply entrenched safe-Dem seat. Muga is a former Democrat turned Republican, frustrated with organized labor and corporate capture of policy. Both advance to November in the top-two system regardless.
"Consumer protection enforcement background sits closer to accountability than civil rights litigation."
Consumer Protection Attorney vs. Cabral Bonner (Civil Rights Attorney). Both are civil-leaning; Johnson's enforcement-adjacent background is a better fit for your accountability preference.
"Career judicial experience over trial advocacy — I want a judge who applies the law, not argues it."
13 years as Administrative Law Judge; 30+ years legal experience. Replacing retiring Judge Brad Seligman. Note: her ALJ background is regulatory rather than criminal trial work — but her judicial temperament and procedural focus is a better fit than Warren's advocacy-oriented trial career.
"Schools should teach math and reading, not ideology — Shaw is the only candidate saying that clearly. Fully aligned on parental notification, Title IX, and keeping DEI/CRT out of classrooms."
Chino Valley Unified School Board President. Authored parental notification policies, fought AG Bonta's lawsuit against them. Platform: restore academic standards, protect Title IX, parental rights, cut bureaucracy. Thurmond is distracted running for Governor; Lara is union-first. ⚠️ Caveat: self-imposed 107% pay raise at Chino Valley contradicts fiscal rhetoric — hold her accountable on spending.
⚠️ Fiscal red flag: Shaw gave herself and board members a 107% pay raise and ballooned superintendent salary to $507K+ at Chino Valley. Watch this closely if she wins.
"No choice — she's the only name on the ballot."
Alameda County Superintendent of Schools — running uncontested. Fill the oval and move on.
"VP-level exec who managed $50M budgets and 180+ people — this is exactly the operator background I want overseeing taxpayer funds in education."
32-year career from warehouse worker to VP of Corporate Operations. Explicit parental rights and fiscal accountability platform. Castro Valley local. Zero political baggage. Why not Reynoso: censured by college board, consumed by personal grievance. Why not Grcar: PhD scientist but no visible platform.
"She already fixed what Price broke — I'm voting to keep enforcement-first DA in place."
Appointed DA who reversed every Price soft-on-crime policy: cleared 2,000+ case backlog, reinstated mandatory minimums for illegal gun possession, reinstated sentencing enhancements. Out-raised opponents 4:1 ($297K vs Price's $72K). Endorsed by Alameda County Prosecutors Association. Price was recalled by voters in 2024 — don't bring her back.
"My property tax bill goes up indefinitely — I'm not approving that without much stronger justification."
Levies $52.50 per $100,000 assessed value (~$14M/year ongoing while bonds are outstanding). Needs 55% to pass. The improvements are legitimate but you're skeptical of bond-funded spending and the ongoing property tax hit.
"Tech executive, Taiwanese immigrant, enforcement-first, anti-mandate — she represents my background and values better than anyone else on this ballot."
Wahab is at 97% to advance through the primary. This is a signal vote, not a swing. Huang: 10+ years in high-tech executive roles, UC Davis grad, Taiwan immigrant, CA Rifle & Pistol Assoc. Grade A, endorsed by Reform California and Moms for Liberty. Platform: Security · Affordability · Prosperity. Realistic expectation: Huang won't win, but a strong showing builds credibility if a runoff happens August 18.